20200328 - Corona Virus Part 2

Welcome to week two of our self-isolation in our little tin can. This week, Pinellas county issued a "Safer-at-home" order. That has effectively cleared our streets. The beaches have been shut down since last Friday night, and now only "essential" businesses remain open - gas stations, groceries, banks, and restaurants if it's to-go or delivery. We have stopped going out for our meals, which is fine by me, because Wendy is a stellar cook! I came down with something on Thursday - a pain in my chest - I don't have a temperature nor is it a "cardiac" kind of pain. It presents itself when I sneeze, cough, hiccup, burp, or move in an unusual way. I called my PCP about it yesterday and her order was to stay at home for 24 hours and see if it improves. Tylenol has been helping with it, so I'm staying on that course. On Monday, I'm to have a tele-doc with my cardiologist, and I'll ask him if there's anything needed. I told the PA that relayed my PCP's orders that if I feel that it's escalating over the weekend, then I'll just go to the hospital. She informed me that no, I won't - there's a pre-screening that's required before going to the hospital, and she gave me that number. She then relayed that another man wanted to go to the hospital, and he had all of the symptoms of COVID-19, but they wouldn't accept him because he was too young. [Sigh] Our medical facilities have definitely deteriorated. Now, we won't even try.
The total number of COVID-19 cases in the US as of yesterday was 104,126 with a total of 1,696 deaths determined to be from the virus. That's an increase of 22% day-over-day for the total number infected and a 31% day-over-day for the number of deaths. For the US as a whole, 0.03% of the population has become infected and deaths have impacted 0.0005%. The decade factor, the number of days for the number of cases to multiply by a factor of ten, has lengthened to between 8 and 9 days. We will soon be near a million cases. Already, there are hospitals issuing general DNR orders, where doctors are determining who lives and who dies - sounds like euthanasia to me. New York City has the largest number of cases in the US, and now those folks are migrating, either due to fear from the lack of medical care, or just taking a chance that they will better survive somewhere else. The governor of the state of Texas has banned people from New York and other states from entering his state. I don't think that he gets it - banning will only avoid the eventuality, not avert it. There are numerous places working on antidotes, treatments, and cures. Reminds me of the elixirs sold by panhandlers in days gone by. Fact is, it will take over a year to validate clinical trials for a treatment. That will be too late, because if the numbers that I'm observing hold, we will have one million infected in the US in a little over a week. The best treatment now is ventilators, but there are too few of them. Automotive manufacturers are supposed to be making them, but we will need hundreds of thousands before Easter. GM said that they could re-tool a plant in Indiana in a month. We will be nearing 30% of the population by that time.

“Wherever the art of Medicine is loved, there is also a love of Humanity. ”
― Hippocrates

I should also mention that the stock market has improved this week. It was at 19028 on Monday morning, and it finished at 21623 on Friday afternoon. That is after the $2 trillion appropriation from congress this past week, along with numerous actions by the Fed. Personally, I don't see anything as a stable buy, since this is a shot-in-the-arm, not a cure. Because of the movement restrictions, 3.3 million people filed for unemployment in the US last week. That's 1% of the population. I can't help but think that this will be the way of life through the summer. Some argue that the corona virus is seasonal, though there's nothing that demonstrates that. It will race through the population if it continues unabated, perhaps being throttled by the lack of available hosts. Way back when, I suggested to my daughter that would be June. Her guess was early May.

"The two most powerful warriors are patience and time"
-- Leo Tostoy

20200321 - Corona Virus Part 1

Wendy and I have been in self-quarantine inside our little tin can all week. We have tried to get out and see the sun for lunch, when we hit a drive-thru and an occasional pizza for dinner. My employer, Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC) has shut down our office buildings so we are all working-from-home for now. On Friday, I received a communication that said the remote work arrangement will continue until at least April 30th. My setup is quite nice - a desk in the room adjacent to the kitchen, bathrooms nearby, decent internet. Wendy is always so conscious of me working, so she tip-toes around trying not to disturb me. She is also very cognizant of my COPD and she tries not to use the cleaning chemicals while I'm in the house. With the extension of me working from home until April 30, I may need to take an afternoon off and go outside until the chemicals dissipate.

The total number of cases of COVID-19 in the US yesterday was 19,383. This was a 41% increase over the previous day. Currently, the total number of infections multiplies by a factor of ten every eight days. At that rate, we will be topping a million infections in the US before Easter. To try and combat this, the state of Florida has instituted some strong measures - all bars are closed, all beaches are closed, which interrupted the spring-breakers, and all restaurants are takeout or delivery only. This is going to really hurt small business, since they won't have the cash reserves to weather months of this. On another note, the stock market continues to crash, with the DOW wiping out four years of growth by free-falling -30%. Unemployment for March is expected to be around 20%, where it once was 3%. The only thing that I'm sure of is that it will get worse before it gets better.

I don't look forward to the social dynamic as this virus progresses. I can foresee the battle between those that want freedom and those that want martial law. It will be another line of segregation in this fractured society we ironically call the United States.

Nobody left to run with anymore.
Nobody wants to do the crazy things that we used to do before
Nobody left to run with anymore.
-- Dickey Betts, "Nobody to run with", Where It All Begins, The Allman Brothers Band, 1994