20200425 - Corona Virus Part 6

Howdy and welcome to another installment from our little tin can by the sea. Wendy and I are surviving the isolation of self-quarantine from the corona virus pretty well. I keep the K-pods stocked up by ordering through Amazon. Wendy wanted me to try Community Coffee this order and I thought that I'd add a treat - I got a package of a dozen K-cups of Chock full o'nuts decafe. We really enjoy that treat, so I will get some more with my next order. Wendy also made a treat for me - lasagna! Yummers! I could eat that all day, every day! Little treats like these have really helped me make it through the isolation.

Last week, I talked about our drought - we had a big storm come through and it dumped two inches of rain! It lasted from Thursday night through Saturday morning. It has been a very long time since we had a whole day of rain - Hurricane Michael may have been the last time. Even though the wind was whipping and the rain was squalling, you could hear the mocking birds singing out in glee! They would flit down to a puddle, get a drink and a bath, then back into their protected nest, singing the whole time. It was wonderful to hear! As part of the storm, a power glitch took out my laptop's extension monitor. Our Spectrum internet was also lost at that time. This occurred right before a meeting, so I had to pull up the meeting on my phone while the cable router reset and found everything (a fifteen minute process). Meanwhile, I pulled an extra monitor that I had and wired it up to the laptop. It's smaller, but it will do until I can replace the failed unit. I was chuckling to myself, because it was comedic with me setting up bluetooth headphones on the phone, dialing into the meeting, troubleshooting the failed monitor, removing the monitor, unwiring the spare monitor, wiring the spare monitor back up, waiting for the internet to come back for the laptop, then moving the bluetooth headphones back over to the laptop, and bringing up the meeting there. LOL. Part of working-from-home.

Into the numbers, then: Worldwide - 2,885,699 cases with 198,532 deaths; USA - 925,038 cases with 52,185 deaths; Florida - 30,533 cases with 1,046 deaths; Pinellas county - 673 cases with 24 deaths. The decade factor is out to 28 days now. The state of New York gave the results of a study that they conducted with a sampling of New Yorkers throughout the state and they found that 15% of the population of New York state has had COVID-19 and that 20% of the population of New York City has had COVID-19. That would imply that over one million people in New York state have, or have had, COVID-19. California is finding similar numbers. This past week, it was uncovered that the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US began months before the initial January 2020 date. The key is the immune system. COVID-19 invades through the mouth, then opportunely comes across a protein that triggers it. It is not alive, but the unfolding of the proteins and the opportunistic nature of the virus make it appear to be living. It then transfers its RNA to the host cell which becomes a principal component source for constructing the virus. Part of the RNA sequence also creates chemicals that prevents the transmission interferon, the messenger to you immune system. This can go on for months, with the infestation getting worse and worse each day. And then, some stray messages of interferon are received by nearby healthy cells, and it's "game on." The healthy cells heighten their defenses while signalling for help. When the immune system finally arrives to eradicate the corona virus, it is well entrenched and the immune system removes the infected cells. These are lung tissue, however, and the response by the immune system reduces the capability of efficient O2 transfer in the lungs, causing the patient to have an episode of COPD. I have COPD and I understand those numbers. Three things will always get their fill of oxygen: your brain, your heart, and your reproductive organs. So, as oxygen is starved from the body, the other organs take the damage: kidneys, liver, intestines, pancreas, etc. - they begin to shutdown; and when you can no longer process food or waste, you die. I keep a close eye on my pulse oximetry, and so far, I have primarily been above 90%.

When I worked for International Paper in Selma, Alabama, I had a 45 minute drive into work each morning. There was a radio show that I listened to, called "John boy and Billy's Big Show." They had a saying: "Just when I thought you said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talking." This fits into that bag - the president of the US suggested that people shoot up disinfectant in order to kill the corona virus. This caused a ridiculous amount of backlash, with Lysol putting out a statement that their products are not meant for infusion, and the AMA stating that they do not concur with the White House's view, HHS telling people not to do that, and the president saying that he was being sarcastic later that day. The notion fell out of a study by DHS. Homeland Security? It's not peer reviewed, and I take it as propaganda. This is on top of senators suggesting that states file for bankruptcy. Like a freaking piece of paper will fix it. In addition to this, the states of Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina have started easing restrictions, with Georgia going so far as opening beauty salons and bowling alleys. That, too, drew a lot of flack. There have been many demonstrations at various state capitals to ease restrictions. These have had attendance of a few to a few hundred. To me, these are the pawns of people setting the table for the presidential election later this year. Those people funding these events are never part of the event - they let the pawns do that.

It has been a crazy week economically. Gas continues to fall - $1.67/gal, locally, last that we saw it. Oil had a nutso week - it went below zero on Monday. If you held futures that were due on Monday, you had to pay someone to take the oil off your hands - there was no place to put it. So, now the fedearal goverment is buying futures for futures in order to stabilize that market. So far, that abstraction is holding - but it's a shell game to me. Wouldn't it be even better to reduce our reliance on oil and gas even further, especially now? Well, oil is too entrenched in the brokerage's baskets to afford displacing it. Then we'll never be rid of it, and because of that, we will be doomed to global warming. The DJIA was up this week, beginning at 23628 on Monday morning, and closing at 23767 on Friday. This is almost flat, but an uptick is an uptick. 26 million americans have applied for unemployment. That's 7.8% of the population.

You are my sunshine, my only sunshine
You make me happy when skies are grey
You'll never know dear, how much I love you
Please don't take my sunshine away.
- Jimmie Davis/Charles Mitchell, "You are my Sunshine", 1939

Music challenge

I'm in a challenge with a relative. I've pre-selected my responses over the next 30 days.

1 [The Hollies - Long cool woman in a black dress] a song you like with a color in the title
2 [Simon and Garfunkle - 59th street bridge song] a song you like with a number in the title
3 [Alice Cooper - Schools out] a song that reminds you of summer
4 [Lynard Skynard - sweet home alabama] a song that reminds you of someone you would rather forget
5 [Genesis - Squonk] a song that needs to be played loud
6 [Louis armstrong - What a wonderful World] a song that makes you want to dance
7 [Golden Earring - Radar Love] a song to drive to - I had to use JJ Cale - They Call me the Breeze
8 [Steppenwolf - The pusher] a song about drugs or alcohol
9 [Jimmie Davis - You are my sunshine] a song that makes you happy - last minute change Johnny Nash, I can see clearly now
10 [Bonnie Ownes - That little boy of mine] a song that makes you sad
11 [Santana - Toussaint L'Overture] a song you never get tired of
12 [The Monkees - Take the last Train to Clarksville] a song from your preteen years
13 [Led Zepplin - Kashmir] a song you like from the 70s
14 [Beethoven - Fur Elise] a song you'd love to be played at you wedding
15 [David Bowie - Dancing in the streets] a song you like that's a cover by another artist - this was done by Martha and the Vandellas!
16 [Beethoven's 5th] a song that's a classic favorite - changed my mind - BB King - The Thrill is Gone
17 [Sonny and Cher - I've got you babe] a song you'd sing a duet with someone on karaoke
18 [Elvis - All shook up] a song from the year you were born
19 [Steely Dan - Reeling in the years] a song that makes you think about life
20 [CSN - Almost cut my hair] a song that has many meanings to you
21 [Derek and the dominoes - Layla] a song that you like with a person's name in the title
22 [The Who - 5:15] a song that moves you forward - changed my mind - The Who - Won't get fooled again
23 [John Cage - 4'33] a song you think everyone should listen to
24 [Ella Fitzgerald and Joe Pass - Cry me a river] a song by a band you wish were still together
25 [Janis Joplin - Bobby McGee] a song you like by an artist no longer living - changed my mind - Stevie Ray Vaughan - Crossfire
26 [Joe Cocker - You are so beautiful] a song that makes you want to fall in love
27 [Carol King - So far away] a song that breaks your heart
28 [Jefferson Airplane - White Rabbit] a song by an artist whos voice you love
29 [Bobby Helms - Jingle bell rock] a song you remember from your childhood
30 [Tears for fears - Everybody wants to rule the world] a song that reminds you of youself

20200418 - Corona Virus Part 5

Greetings from our little tin can by the sea! Wendy and I are still surviving through the quarantine. We make the most of what we have right now. Wen meets with friends on Zoom, and since I know them, too, we duplicate Wendy's monitor onto the TV screen so I can get a dose of "other people". This morning is a rainy one, and we need it! Florida had a very, very dry March, Pinellas county is listed as D1 and Hillsborough county is a D2. According to what I can drum up, we are deficient 5 inches of rain so far in 2020. I guess I can just add that the list of 2020 de-normalities.

I took a couple of days off work this week just to relax, which I did accomplish! It should have been a cruise week with Wendy, to celebrate our 20th wedding anniversary, but we'll have to do that at a later time. We also cancelled plans that we had to see the kids in May - I was going to see my daughter get her Associates degree. That was a robbed opportunity, in so many ways. During the time off, I took a look through the 1940 census for my grandparents, which I found both sets, but no luck for my Mom and Dad. I'll keep looking - they are out there somewhere. Last week, Wendy cut my hair! We bought a small hair trimmer and it works great. Of course, my haircut is very simple - #1 all over! My hair had gotten kind of long, in my opinion, and having it cut was awesome! I also found time to soak my feet. They needed it - we haven't been to the pool for a couple of years, so it felt good to immerse the puppies in some soothing H2O. Speaking of work, my employer informed us this Wednesday that the office building closures will continue through May 31st. So, I will become a more permanent fixture at home for the time being. Personally, I don't think that I will return to the office this year unless required. The corona virus causes an autoimmune reaction, and it's attack site is cells with the lungs. So, it finds a home, infects the dickens out of all the cells that it can find while cutting off interferon messages back to the immune system. It's the immune system that causes the widespread damage, when it eventually receives messages to engage the virus. Since I have COPD, you can bet your bottom dollar that I have kept a close eye on my pulse oximetry.

I'll use that as a segue into the numbers. Worldwide: 2,280,787 cases with 156,345 deaths; US: 712,844 cases with 37,289 deaths; Florida: 25,269 cases with 740 deaths; Pinellas county: 577 cases with 16 deaths. In the US, the number of cases are increasing at a rate of 5% day over day, with the deaths increasing at a rate of 7% day over day. The decade factor for the US is out to 23 days now. That's the time that it takes the number of cases to multiply by a factor of ten. I remember back in the days when I was at International Paper, the "Safety Guy" (sorry, I can't recall his name for the life of me) performed a demonstration with a jar of marbles. In it were various colors. He had each of us close our eyes and pull a marble out of the jar. If it was white, then you were okay, green meant that you had an accident, red and yellow were lost time accidents, and the black marble meant that you died. I didn't "die" during that demonstration, but I can parallel that to what we have with COVID-19. In a jar of four hundred marbles, make 380 white, nineteen red, and one black. Every day that you go out and interact with people, you are pulling from that jar. If you pull white, then you are okay; red - you are infected; and black means that you are infected and you will die. There's a 60% chance that you will be okay after 10 attempts, with only a 2% chance that you will die. How many times will you pull from that jar?

Just today, I saw gas at $1.71/gal. The DJIA started the week at 23817 and ended it at 24238, for a good uptick over the week. I did get the stimulus check this past week, which I am thankful for. However, this works out to the same math as basic income - it devalues the currency that is used. This makes imports more expensive, so it promotes domestic growth. It promotes this growth at a higher price. The stipend given will need to be increased so that the same basket remains affordable, which repeats the cycle. Once the entitlement is started, it is very difficult to wean the population off of it. The economy is in rough shape, with over 20 million people out of work. The unemployment rate for March increased from 3.5% to 4.4% and April is looking much worse than that. Unemployment has become so bad that people in some states, backed by right-winged donors, are protesting! Well, that's like taking a whole bunch of marbles from the jar! I guarantee that the donors are nowhere to be found during those protests, and they don't care how many of them die. They want their money - simple greed and using COVID-19 as a hit-man; cowards. On another note, I've seen a share of memes about the president being responsible for the stimulus check. My questions: 1. how did he create the corona virus, and 2. where's the rest of my money? Seems to me, I've paid 8 to 9% tax to the federal government all of my life. That should be well over a million dollars! Memes - can't live with them, can't live without them!

People,
People who need people,
Are the luckiest people in the world
We're children, needing other children
And yet letting a grown-up pride
Hide all the need inside
Acting more like children than children
- Barbara Streisand, People, People, 1964

20200411 - Corona Virus Part 4

Hello again from a tin can down by the sea, where my wife, Wendy, and I are surviving our self-isolation due to COVID-19. This past week was an okay one for us - our health is good, so we have that going for us. I think we're falling into a bit of a routine now that it's been a month of limited contact with others. Wen has had some luck meeting up with friends on Zoom. Zoom is a video conferencing app that has a free tier to it. For free, they will connect your group for a half hour. Wen has used it with her brothers and their wives, and my brother Carl has suggested using Zoom for a gathering to celebrate their 50th wedding anniversary. Personally, I think that would be a great idea.

This week has been a rough one for me at work. I've been assigned some tasks that involve requirement gathering. It would be great if the folks that had the info were very forthcoming with it, but they aren't, so it's like pulling teeth. I am also realizing that PwC is nice, but it's not my dream. They have a breadth of products, covering a breadth of dependencies, with a breadth of tech debt. The best that I can do is to try and help when I can and to be an advocate for change. I have a meeting coming up with our CIO - it's a lunch, actually - maybe I can bring up some of this tech debt and see if it gains any traction with him.

Our state's "lockdown" continues. Today is day 83 since the first case of COVID-19 in Washington state on January 19, 2020. I wear a mask when I go out in public for any length of time, but it doesn't seem that most people do. I went to Publix the other day, and I think only a handful of the patrons had masks on. I do applaud the store management, because nearly every store employee was masked. It also seems that traffic is picking up a bit - I think the population is tired of being cooped up, so they are starting to circulate again. It's bad timing for that. Though the rate of change for COVID-19 cases and deaths is slowing, it is still positive, and it will become more positive if folks don't mind their Ps and Qs about social distancing. According to some calculations, today is the peak day for hospital needs and the death rate from COVID-19 here in the US. This is adding to the laissez-faire position being taken by many US residents. They think that it's over and we won, and they couldn't be more wrong. If the estimates by the statisticians are correct, we are in the middle of it. It will take over two months to get out of this - maybe by 4th of July. That's assuming that it doesn't rekindle.

And that brings me to the numbers. Worldwide: 1,710,135 cases with 103,506 deaths. US: 502,876 with 18,747 deaths. Florida: 17,968 cases with 419 deaths. The day-over-day percentage changes for the US has been shallowing - today's total number of cases is an increase of only 7% over yesterday, and the number of deaths has increased 12% over yesterday. The decade factor, the number of days for a factor of ten increase, is out to 18 days. Generally, these numbers are a very low percentage of the US population. In terms of the overall US population, the number of cases represents 0.15% of the population and the number of deaths represent 0.03% of the population. I think these low proportions are feeding the notion that "everything is fine." I've also realized that, in the US, we are grossly understating the number infected, since the only folks that are being tested are people that can be admitted into an ER. The same goes with the number of deaths - unless the individual was positively ID'ed with COVID-19 before death, then it doesn't even enter into the cause of death on the death certificate. In fact, the CDC guidance asks the coroners to weigh all of the past history before assigning a cause of death. I think this is a push to keep the published numbers low, as a political front in a presidential election year. That may be a conspiracy theory, but who knows?

In absolute values, the case count for the US, and likewise the death count, is huge, But as I tumble these statistics around, I'm much more aghast at the values from Europe. As a comparison, the percentage of the number of deaths to the number of cases for the US is 3.73%. In Italy, that same number is 12.77%. The UK is 12.31%; France - 10.57%; Spain 10.16%. In a word: wow.

Economically, our gas is selling for $1.73/gal and the DJIA increased over the week from 23690 to 23716. I would call that "steady", but a gain is a gain. Over 16 million have filed for unemployment since March 1st. Going to the grocery store was an eye opener - there was more selection in the dog food aisle than there was in the canned vegetable aisle. Wen wanted some onion bagels, but she had to settle for me bringing home two packages of plain bagels, because there were only a total of four packs of bagels on the shelf. Back when the toilet paper hoarding began, we were told that there is nothing wrong with the supply chain and that everything would still be stocked up. We're a month into this, and, frankly, I ain't seeing it.

No reason to get excited
The thief he kindly spoke
There are many here among us
Who feel that life is but a joke
But, uh, but you and I, we've been through that
And this is not our fate
So let us stop talkin' falsely now
The hour's getting late, hey...
- Bob Dylan, "All along the watchtower", John Wesley Harding, 1967

Without COVID-19, Wen and I would be finishing our packing right now. We were to take a cruise at noon today, but that was derailed and slated for another day. Even though it's no where near our anniversary, "Happy 20th Anniversary, cutie!"

And so castles, made of sand,
Fall in the sea, eventually.
- Jimi Hendrix, "Castles made of sand", Axis: Bold as Love, 1967

I have one more story about me in Publix.  While I was there, masked with my home-made froggy mask, I saw a woman with a hijab - the face covering typically used by Muslim women. During the last 20 years, there has been considerable diatribe about women wearing a hijab. In a second, that entire argument became crystal clear to me. It was bigotry, plain and simple. This woman and I shared the same concept - a facemask - and hers was as functional as mine. The fact that the society in the US questioned the use of a hijab is bigotry, plain and simple.

20200404 - Corona Virus Part 3

Greetings once again from our little tin can! Wendy and I are doing great! The chest tightness that I reported last week has fixed itself, and I'm back to normal. I had a conversation with my cardiologist this past week as part of my annual checkup with him. He tells me that he's retiring and I'm selfishly sorry to hear that, but I'm happy for him. I started seeing Dr. Kohl in 2017 after my heart attack (see Feb 10 2017 story). He's been very forthright with me, telling me truths. I will miss him, though I look forward to spreading some humor to his replacement. I'm feeling very nostalgic lately, due to Facebook posts from a few cousins. My brother, Carl, cancelled his plans for a 50th wedding celebration in May. I gave him a call to talk about it and I ended up talking about myself. I wish that I could have called Mick, as well; I do miss him and his wife, Dorothy.

Our marvelous state of Florida is on lockdown now, unless you're a preacher with a deranged congregation - in that case, you can gather as much as you want. Seriously. The governor of Florida put out a clarifying order to his Stay at Home order stating that churches were necessary businesses and that they could meet in groups of any number. Part of his clarifying order included a provision that local leaders could not create orders that contradicted his order. Looks like the governor doesn't want to be re-elected. I think that these Stay at Home orders will keep getting looser and looser until one day, once all of us have had a bout of COVID-19, the orders will be rescinded and people will ask, "why was that still on the books?" That's how the "blue laws" were rescinded. Our federal government has been in the news for pilfering masks and ordering 3M not to fill orders outside the US. If there ever was a time to set aside nationalism, it is now, and yet, it proliferates. On politics, I will share this quote:

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. -- Winston Churchill

Ok, here's the numbers today. Worldwide - 1,162,834 cases with 62,489 deaths; US - 277,161 cases with 7,392 deaths; Florida - 10,268 cases with 191 deaths. The number of COVID-19 cases has increased by 13% since yesterday for the United States, and 14% for Florida. This is appreciably better than the 30-40% day over day growth rates in mid-March. It has extended the decade factor out to 12 days. The decade factor is the amount of time it takes for the number of cases to multiply by a factor of ten. I expect the US to be past one million cases during the next week.

The big picture on all the political moves is that we are trying to buy time. Not for a vaccine - even though the US is moving forward with two candidates, those will likely help the next generation. This generation will have to deal with 80% of the people contracting the virus, with 3% of that total dying from it. By buying time, we're trying to improve the mortality rate. We are hoping that there will be a hospital bed and a ventilator available when it's our turn. That's really the long and short of it. Unfortunately, there will be fewer health care professionals available as doctors and nurses themselves come down with COVID-19, which means that our limitation isn't the equipment or the facilities - it's the people. I do pray that should Wendy or I require hospitalization, that there are enough doctors and nurses to go around.

The DJIA is down this week, opening last Monday at 21,678 and closing Friday afternoon at 21,055. The price of gasoline nearby our home is $1.75/gal. Congress is working on a second stimulus bill, and we are due to receive our first check from the federal government in two weeks. I've read that our president wanted his signature on the checks - I'm glad that mine will be directly deposited.

I ventured into Sam's Club this past week looking for toilet paper. There weren't any of the usual brands - that area was clean. However, there were cases of the extra large mega rolls that restaurants and gas stations normally have. Near there, I struck up a conversation with another gentleman. He was also looking for toilet paper.Though I had no prejudice in picking up these industrial sized rolls, he certainly did. He asked one of the workers if they sold the dispensers for the extra large rolls. Hearing "No", he decided not to get it. Huge question marks appeared above my head - he came in here to get toilet paper and they had toilet paper, so he left with no toilet paper?! Who follows inane logic like that? Well, I've had a conversation with one guy that does.

I picked up a gizmo that allows us to put our laptop on the TV screen. It's a SharePro by Iogear. There's two pieces to it, a receiver that gets hooked up in the HDMI port on the TV and a transmitter that gets connected to the HDMI port of the laptop. It works great! We use it for meetings. Since becoming a recluse, I've desperately missed conversations with other humans. I get to see my wife, but there has been little contact outside of that. Now, when Wendy connects to meetings using Zoom, I can watch on the TV and see everyone and hear their interaction. It's very nice. Carl thought that he may try Zoom as a substitute for the breakfast he had panned for his 50th wedding anniversary. I think that would be great. Maybe I could have our daughter and grandkids join in. It would really be nice to see everyone, even if it's from a distance.

Long distance run around
Long time waiting to feel the sound
I still remember the dream there
I still remember the time you said goodbye
Did we really tell lies?
Letting in the sunshine
Did we really count to one hundred?
-- Jon Anderson, "Long Distance Run Around", Fragile, Yes, 1971