20200725 - Corona Virus Part 19 - Black Lives Matter Part 8

Hello, howdy, and greetings from our little tin can by the sea. Wendy and I survived another week of self-isolation amid the corona virus pandemic. We are both healthy and doing well. The picture to the right was taken in Sawgrass Lake Park last Sunday. That park is near our home, and we got some Einstein bagels and sat in the car at the park for brunch. There was a lot of wildlife, including a red-headed woodpecker. Largely, though, I enjoy watching the butterflies. We still have some butterflies behind our home, and I get to see them from time to time as I work. Normally, I sit out on the west porch in the morning, but I've had to use the lanai on Thursday and Friday. We have an industrious mud dauber that is bent on building a cocoon somewhere on our west porch. Since I have vision issues, I can't readily distinguish between a wasp and a mud dauber, so I just relocate for now. I'll try to restake my claim to the west porch on Monday, after a bit of washing this weekend. I'm still working from home, which has been great. I must admit that I'm thankful for working from home. I disagree with how my group is being run, and it's just "better" for my longevity there that I don't vocalize any of it to management. I do like my employer, but I wish that the message from my immediate supervisors was consistent with the message delivered from the upper ones. 

Cases	Deaths	Tests

Scope	Cases	% Inc.	Deaths	% Inc.
Worldwide	15,985,274	12.3	643,581	7.2
United States	4,249,779	12.7	148,521	4.5
Florida	402,312	22.9	5,653	17.6
Pinellas County	14,726	15.8	367	22.3

Though I question the validity of the numbers being reported, I will keep reporting them. I've added another little trend from Reuters - one for the number of tests and the percentage of positives. There are three states that are setting the trend for cases and deaths: California, Florida, and Texas. Arizona is dropping out of the race by reducing the number of tests - fewer tests, fewer positives. I'm sure that the deaths are being swept into some other bin, so they won't show up until the mortality data comes out. Truth is hard to come by. Still, the primary topic is opening the schools. Our secretary of education has decided to blatantly lie by quoting selected quotes from medical papers. First, some at least have not been peer reviewed; second, the quotes are being applied out-of-context. The first is a fallacy of hasty generalization, the second is an intentional fallacy. I put a wary take on this: if the truth appears deceptive, then chances are that it isn't the truth. 

Meanwhile, the federal shock troops are moving into additional cities. They are now in Portland, Seattle, Albuquerque, Chicago, and Kansas City. Well, when a fascist is elected, you end up with fascism. 

One item of note on the global warming front - the expected global temperature rise is now estimated at 2.9 to 3.6 degrees Centigrade. This improves the previous worst case of 4.5 degrees C, though it worsens the previous best case of 1.5 degrees C. The article in Science Magazine, authored by Paul Voosen, concludes by saying:

Unfortunately, the years of work needed to attain that certainty came with a cost: 4 decades of additional emissions and global warming, unabated.

On to the economy - I haven't been out this past week, but google tells me that the local 7/11 is selling regular for $1.96/gal. Though the DJIA surged during the week, it is down overall. It opened on Monday morning at 26660 and closed on Friday afternoon at 26469. I've been reading a lot of prophets of doom regarding the US economy, while the Fed and treasury have largely been silent. Unemployment has increased, with an estimated 30 million people in the US out-of-work. Many of the provisions of the PPP law will end on July 31. Salary protection and the increased unemployment benefits are two of the most notable. The senate is having difficulty piecing together a package that will meet muster with the white house and the house of representatives. It's of their own design - they hoped to force the legislation, using the drop dead date as leverage. Now, that leverage has turned against them.

On politics - please look elsewhere.

I've got the apolitical blues

And that's the meanest blues of all

Apolitical blues

And that's the meanest blues of all

I don't care if it's John Wayne

I just don't want to talk to him now

- Lowell George, A apolitical blues, Sailin' Shoes, Little Feat, 1972

 

20200718 - Corona Virus Part 18 - Black Lives Matter Part 7

Howdy and welcome back to our little tin can by the sea, where Wendy and I try to stay healthy amid the corona virus pandemic. As you can see by the above chart, our picturesque state of Florida isn't doing so well with the number of COVID-19 cases. In fact, we are the model for what-not-to-do, perhaps only surpassed by Georgia, but I'll get to that in a bit. The two of us are healthy, and staying at home. We both communicate with the outside world via email, texts, and video meetings. I see many of my family up north circulating with pictures shopping and outdoors with no masks or social distancing. I wish that I could do that. Unfortunately, I have a plethora of ailments that put me in the upper percentiles of bad outcomes from COVID-19 respiratory distress. Luckily, my employer is very onboard with working from home, so I continue to do so. I haven't gone out except to grab a pizza for dinner yesterday. Weather is changing into our typical "summer" pattern - beautiful in the morning, rains begin at 3. This is the setup for the hurricanes in August. My thoughts and prayers go out to the sailors onboard the USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD 6), who have relentlessly fought an intense shipboard fire while docked at San Diego, CA 32nd street. Thanks for saving her, but I'm sure that each of the sailors lost something in that blaze, since their personal effects were still onboard when they evacuated. I spent three years in San Diego while on the USS Mount Vernon (LSD 39), and fire is the biggest nemesis onboard any ship.

Cases	Deaths

Scope	Cases	% Inc.	Deaths	% Inc.
Worldwide	14,230,773	12.3	600,304	6.5
United States	3,771,101	14.5	142,080	3.9
Florida	327,241	34.0	4,805	17.1
Pinellas County	12,714	20.0	300	31.0

Git yer numbas here! Numbers! Fresh, hot numbas! Just take a look to the left. This is bad and it is going to get worse, because our leaders aren't doing any thing about it. Suddenly, the governor of Georgia has elected to take an active Libertarian position on masks, to the point of signing an executive order preventing counties and cities from requiring masks to be worn. That's freakin' nuts! On the other side of the coin, the governor of Maryland is exaggerating the extents that his state went to in order to provide ventilators. Yet another grand-stander (YAG-S). The big topic for the week has been opening schools in the coming weeks. The guidance provided by the CDC has been denounced by the white house as too expensive. The CDC is now being bypassed for reporting, which is going to cook the books - the numbers won't be accurate. I read a report stating that the governor of Georgia cooked his numbers so his state could open early. I felt this was happening back in April. There was also a case of espionage where the Russian government was trying to gain information on corona virus vaccines from Canada, the UK, and the US by hacking. 

On the Black Lives Matter front - this just in - secret police from the department of homeland security are arresting peaceful protesters in Portland, Oregon. No poop. Federal officers in fatigues with no insignia or markings arrested peacefully protesting civilians. The federal officers were not there at the request of the governor or mayor; instead, an unidentified spokeswoman for the group said that they were there to protect the statues. 

"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people."

- Amendment X, The Constitution of the United States

So, unless the state specifically gives the federal government the right,the federal government does not have the right. This is the concept of state sovereignty. The white house is trying criminal threats to impress their wishes on the states. The problem here is what is done has been done. Now, the fear of retribution by federal forces is planted. Even if the ACLU and the governor of Oregon sue and win, it will not change the fact that at least for one day, the constitution, and state sovereignty, were discarded by uninvited federal forces. I think that we have become the thing that we hate. I do wonder if the police lobbyists had a hand, because earlier in the week Oregon posted the names of officers that were decertified in that state back to 1971. The hope was to make the first move in creating a national database of officers that should not wear the badge. To those humans in the camo fatigues - it is highly unlikely that your leaders will pay for this disdain of the law; however, it is highly likely that you will.

On to the economy - gas is selling for $1.99/gal at the local 7/11 today. Over the week, the DJIA has been up, starting Monday morning at 26225 and ending Friday afternoon at 26686. The treasury secretary has suggested that all of the PPP loans under $50,000 should be forgiven - shoot, I didn't get my request in, dern it. This further demonstrates the need for oversight in everything this administration does. Those are my taxes being peed away, mister secretary.

That brings me to the section on politics. My least favorite of all things to discuss. The following definition should suffice:

Plausible deniability is the ability to deny any involvement in illegal or unethical activities, because there is no clear evidence to prove involvement. The lack of evidence makes the denial credible, or plausible. The use of the tactic implies forethought, such as intentionally setting up the conditions to plausibly avoid responsibility for one’s future actions.

- Political Dictionary

It used to be easy to understand the two primary political parties in the US. The whigs were for Britain, and the democrats were for France. Early republicans were states rights, where early democrats preferred federal authority. What I see now is concerning. Many approaches are from the far corners of leftism (socialism) and rightism (fascism). They are missing the middle, which is where I am. I don't want cops shooting citizens everyday. I also want my heart to swell with pride when I read the plaque at the Statue of Liberty. There needs to be mediation to the centralized vs. federated debate. Guidance should always be centralized. Enforcement should always be federated. That's exactly how our judicial system is set up. Here's a question: why do the police, teachers, and other public workers have unions? Is it because of fear that power will be abused, or is it to aim the abuse of that power? 

'Til next week - Ex20:13, and thanks to Patrick Semansky/AP for the pic.

And in the naked light I saw

Ten thousand people, maybe more

People talking without speaking

People hearing without listening

People writing songs that voices never share

And no one dared

Disturb the sound of silence

- Paul Simon, Sounds of silence, Sounds of Silence, 1966

20200711 - Corona Virus Part 17 - Black Lives Matter Part 6

Greetings and welcome from our little tin can by the sea. Wendy and I are doing well, still surviving through the COVID-19 pandemic. I returned to work this week, after taking some time off over fourth of July. There is so much that I wish that I could change about the way my group at work does things. We are a waterfall shop that is using scrum rituals. Everyone is either too afraid or too frustrated to make suggestions to improve what we have. Every suggestion is met with skepticism and irony by leadership, further enforcing the org chart on the team. There are no team decisions - everything is led by leadership. Daily, our architect makes some vague statement without examples that we have to follow. That announcement is typically in an "email of blast" to the entire group and up two levels in management. When I see it, my mind thinks: "applaud in public; correct in private." In the big perspective, I'll try to migrate to a different group and let these folks continue their waterfall ways. There's a comet in the sky! It's visible in the evening in the west. I thank Fred Espenak for capturing it and posting it to Earth Sky's Community Photos. Over the years, comets have been portents of change, and framing the tee-pee in the foreground is very appropriate. This past week, the supreme court ruled that the eastern half of Oklahoma is reservation land. That includes the city of Tulsa! It turns out that the Indian Removal Act of 1830 granted the reservation land "in perpetuity." The forced removal of indigenous peoples from southeast US to Oklahoma became known as the "Trail of Tears" because 4,000 of the 60,000 that were relocated died from exposure, disease, or starvation. After the ruling, lawyers for the Muscogee (Creek), Seminole, Cherokee, Chickasaw, and Choctaw tribes began hammering out agreements for governance of the people currently on reservation land, and how that will look in the future. One point of note is that this land has been exploited for oil and gas in the past, and it is currently a fracking hotspot. The tribes may sue to recoup all of the money gained by exploitation of resources on their land. Big time portents!

Cases	Deaths

Scope	Cases	% Inc.	Deaths	% Inc.
Worldwide	12,674,605	13.0	563,910	6.5
United States	3,294,219	13.9	136,720	3.5
Florida	244,151	36.7	4,102	11.3
Pinellas County	10,596	37.7	229	25.1

Hi, my name is Steve and I've been a stupid Floridian for seven years. Maybe I should open up a "Floridians Anonymous" group. Bad, bad numbers; terrible. Quoting Dr. Anthony Fauci, "But as a country, when you compare us to other countries, I don’t think you can say we’re doing great. I mean, we’re just not." The numbers to the left bear this out. In Florida, it appears that our governor is planning to allow the corona virus a free run through the state. He's not alone; it appears that Texas, California, and Arizona have similar game plans. The chart of Daily Deaths for Florida shows what will happen if we continue on our present course.

The deaths will escalate, until the hospitals are saturated, then the deaths will escalate faster. We are nearly at saturation in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties (St. Pete and Tampa). Miami and Fort Lauderdale are saturated. We are already "ahead of the curve" on this predictive model. The lines that decline show scenarios where mask wearing is mandated and the easing of restrictions is rolled back. A lot of lives would be saved if we did either of these, but, instead, we do nothing. Well, we continue reopening, which I guess is something. At the city level, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale have rolled back some of the easing, closing bars, beaches, and setting restaurant occupancy to a max of 50%. In Pinellas county, we have closed up the bars and instituted mandatory face masks. The mandatory face masks appears to have a 50% adoption rate, with 0% enforcement. 

I haven't been out this week, but GasBuddy tells me that the local 7/11 is selling gas for $2.04/gal. The DJIA was essentially flat, starting the week at 25996 and closing at 26074. For closings, Brooks Brothers filed for Chapter 11. The treasury released a partial list of companies that accepted "loans" as part of congress' Paycheck Protection Program. Here's a link to a searchable database from the washington post. The number of unemployed has decreased to 18 million. However, if someone that was receiving unemployment gets a job, then is laid off again, they cannot re-apply for unemployment. Rigged system.

On the global warming front, we could hit the 1.5 degree C cap set at the Paris Accord by 2024. Another study states that if we cut CO2 emissions today, it would take another 20 years for the temperature to begin decreasing. Pink ice is being reported in the Italian Alps, which can't be good. A judge in Washington D.C. has ordered the Dakota-Access pipeline shutdown, pending an environmental review. The Lakota (Sioux) tribe score a victory. 

I'm really sick to my stomach of politics, and I know that I'm facing another four months before the election. So, in the interest of fairness, I'm suspending the politics section. A note of caution to candidates - check with the artist before using their song in your campaign. 

Sing hymns, make love, get high, fall dead

He'll bring his perfume to your bed

He'll charm your life 'til the cold wind blows

Then he'll sell your dreams to a picture show

- John Wetton, Robert Fripp, and Richard Palmer-James, The great deceiver, Starless and Bible Black, King Crimson, 1974

Meanwhile, on New York City's 5th Avenue, directly in front of Trump Tower:

Photo by Angela Weiss / AFP

20200704 - Corona Virus Part 16 - Black Lives Matter Part 5

Happy fourth of july from our little tin can by the sea. Wendy and I are doing well, just surviving through the corona virus pandemic. I've been on vacation this past week, which has been nice. I really didn't sleep in as much as I had hoped, but you take what you get when it comes to sleep. We had the fan installed in the lanai this past week, but it has been really hot, so we haven't had a chance to use it much. Right now, we just have a couple of light chairs in there, but we are expecting a couch and bigger chairs later in the month. As I think about it, it was listed on backorder, so we'll deal with it when it comes. It will require some assembly, which is like an erector set for adults, and I'm looking forward to that. I've used the side deck in the morning from time to time this week. When there's a southern breeze, it's heavenly on the deck. I got one of my pet projects done this week - we have a new TV in our bedroom. That's been in the works for over a year. There's a very long story to it, which involves me wanting to replace the TVs in both our bedroom and the guest bedroom, then ordering two TVs, only to get one working and one damaged, then being reimbursed for both, then being charged for one, then figuring out how to send payment, then looking for another seller of that model of TV, then forgetting about it for a while, then finding a seller and ordering, and it arrived and sat, and sat, until I put it in this past week. Well, maybe not so long of a story. It felt good to have the old CRT TV out of the house. My daughter got me a robot for father's day, which I've had time to assemble. It's a small R2D2, and it's fun to play with it. It's difficult to control it when it's coming toward you, but I think that's the nature of any R/C model. We've had a big batch of dust from the sarhara in our air this week, which is why the sun is so muddy in the above screen capture.

Cases	Deaths

Scope	Cases	% Inc.	Deaths	% Inc.
Worldwide	11,219,793	12.9	529,601	6.4
United States	2,891,267	13.2	132,112	3.5
Florida	178,594	45.2	3,686	9.5
Pinellas County	7,697	51.0	183	29.8

Data and Digits! New data; same analysis. We are doing terrible, and now it's another holiday weekend. Cases are way up! In fact, the US and Florida set records for the number of COVID-19 cases in a single day. Judging by the trend, there's more records to follow. In Pinellas county, our death count continues its meteoric rise. Our population base is older folks, many with multiple susceptibilities to this particular virus. Statewide, the death rate has plateaued. Largely, this is due to doctors, nurses, and technicians improving their skills with regard to this virus. The elimination of techniques that caused inflammation, as well as the use of steroid anti-inflammatories have dramatically improved survivability once a patient contracts COVID-19. However, as the number of cases rise, so do the number of hospitalizations, and the number of deaths. Once the level is reached that hospitals are saturated with no more equipment, beds, and staff, the deaths will skyrocket. It is a grim tale and I expect it to begin playing out before the end of the month. Meanwhile, Europe is reopening. I do hope that they fare considerably better that we have.

There has been a lot of activity for Black Lives Matter, from more examples of excessive force by police to demonstrations of stupidity by homeowners and reckless drivers plowing into peaceful demonstrations. One of the continuing themes is that the looting and destruction is largely being promoted by whites. I hope that they catch some of them and try them. There is a mural in Boynton Beach, FL, that has two black faces in it that have been rendered as white by the muralist. That's just crap - why would you do that, and why would you accept that work? Unfortunately, congress went on summer vacation without passing a police reform bill. That implies that one won't be passed this year. Once they return in the middle of July, it will be full press partisanship, since it will lead into the national conventions and then the presidential election. 

The above chart demonstrates how deep we have waded into global warming. Enough talking, time for action is long overdue. First item is to discover and reward energy solutions that involve acceptable discharges - no heavy metals, no radiation, no carbon, no nitrates, no etc! And the solution to pollution is NOT dilution! We have become sheep waiting for others to develop and engineer technologies for the energy sector. It's time to lead!

On the economic front, gas was selling at $2.09/gal at the local 7/11 this week. The DJIA had an increase this past week, opening at 25642 on Monday morning and closing at 25832 on Friday afternoon. The increase is attributable to pharmaceuticals talking up this or that version of vaccine. One ray of sunshine was that 2.5 million jobs were created last month, but that leaves over 20 million unemployed. The real time bomb is when the wage assistance runs out at the end of this month. Right now, there is insufficient agreement within the legislature to support extending any of these benefits, so the clock is ticking. Meanwhile, the labor department has removed a protection for excessive overtime. It used to be that over 40 hours was OT and payable at time and a half. If not payed, a court could order the OT to be paid at three times the OT hours. That is now gone, and it turns into a loan minus court fees. 

The object to the right is an Amsler Grid. Due to ailments with my vision, I have stared at these very often. However, I would like to offer a different use for these grids. Prior to the election, make a list of the issues. First choose two pro's and consider the vertical axis to be one of them and the horizontal axis to be another. Your opinion is the central dot. Map the stances by the candidates relative to your opinion. Now, choose two con's and do the same. Keep doing this and you will begin to see the candidate that has stances similar to your values. I'd like to promote this because we too often find one issue that a candidate is over the moon about, and we may be just leaning in agreement. That would show a large disparity on the grid. If anything, it is a self-assessment of your values and how the candidates stack up with what matters to you. Politically, the big news was that the Russians appear to have offered bounty on American lives in Afghanistan. I say "appeared" because this is politics, and nothing is black and white. The question now is why hasn't the president done anything about it? His statement is the Sgt. Schultz quote - I know nothing. It's a play for plausible deniability. Mr Teflon seems to have a doctorate in accountability avoidance. I have a lot of other notes from this past week, but I'm sick to my stomach from the misrepresentation of our current cast of characters in government.

If I gave you everything that I owned

And asked for nothing in return

Would you do the same for me as I would for you?

Or take me for a ride

And strip me of everything, including my pride

But spirit is something that no one destroys

And the sound that I'm hearing is only the sound

Of the low spark of high-heeled boys, heeled boys

- Steve Winwood and Jim Capaldi, The low spark of high-heeled boys, The Low Spark of High-Heeled Boys, Traffic, 1971

End note: I fell in love with this picture of a couple in Italy. It makes me well up every time that I see it. It conveys the wishes of love and hope shared between a husband and wife despite COVID-19.

 

credit to Emilio Morenatti/AP.