Happy holidays from us in the tin can by the sea. These are rough days this year. My son-in-law has come down with COVID and that has quarantined my daughter and grandson as well. My granddaughter and her son are isolated from the family due to the quarantine, with all the presents that were bought for them isolated in the house with my daughter and her family. Meanwhile, my niece and her husband are recovering from COVID that they came down with earlier in December. Further, my nephew is recovering after surgery to re-attach his retina. Another sister-in-law is recovering after surgery to replace a heart valve earlier this month. Another cousin is in cancer remission. One friend of the family has learned that he will be fighting cancer for the rest of his life. Another close friend is undergoing surgery early in January.
This year has taken it's toll on me.
2020 has taken the lives of many dear friends and I'm sorry that I didn't say hello often enough or get a hug or handshake goodbye. "There will be another day" is no more.
The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has received clearance from the FDA, and the Moderna vaccine is right behind. Tomorrow, someone in the US, presumably a health care worker, will be inoculated against COVID-19, beginning the en masse delivery of the vaccine to US Citizens.
There's a lot that I could say regarding the vaccine, but, right now, there's no sense in doing that. The fact is that this will save lives and people will breathe for another day.
I could go on about our lame-duck pres' attempts to disenfranchise a large number of voters in the US, but, really, why? Why rant? The election of 2020 will be filed alongside the election of 1876, where political shenanigans abounded.
The number of daily cases in the US broke 200,000 yesterday. On November 19th, the US had over 2,000 deaths attributable to COVID-19.
Georgia certified their election results, which awarded the election of president to Joe Biden.
After meeting with the sitting president, Michigan lawmakers didn't buy in.
The old saying is that “figures will not lie,” but a new saying is “liars will figure.” It is our duty, as practical statisticians, to prevent the liar from figuring; in other words, to prevent him from perverting the truth, in the interest of some theory he wishes to establish. - Carrol D. Wright, 1889
In the comic sci-fi "trilogy", "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy", the number 42 is touted as the answer to the question, "What is the meaning of life, the universe, and everything." Oddly, it is also the percentage of white males in the US that did not vote for Trump. Coincidence? I think not.
Despite the cloak-and-dagger conspiracy theories presented by the sitting pres and his cast of legal characters, we have a new President - Elect: Joe Biden.
To those facing social injustice: make your vote count. This does not end your cause; it is but one step along the way. Certainly relish the moment, but know that there is yet very much work to be done. Let's start doing it - together.
Ballots were cast on the third for the election, and it is still undecided on the sixth. Largely, there are five states that we are waiting on to determine the results: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. I doubt that we'll know for certain today, either, since some of these states have automatic recount laws that may come into effect should the final count be very close. And then there's the suits. Yes, the sitting pres has sued any state that resulted in a electoral votes for the democrat candidate. I suspect that will take a while to sort out. I'm sure that the democrat candidate has also filed a number of suits as well, perhaps better founded.
I'm expecting business-as-usual out of the senate and house - stalemate, finger-point, equivocate, ambiguate, lather, rinse, repeat... I will be interested to see if new members have bettered or worsened the demographics of the two chambers.
Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases are over 100,000 per day and deaths from that disease are over 1,000 per day in the US. Black Lives Matter continues in the news, as police seem to routinely shoot blacks. The US has officially backed out of the Paris accord. Tropical storm Eta, the 28th named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season, is approaching Florida this weekend.
Not a banner week.
On a better note, my past illness has subsided. I still have pain in the right side, but the CT scan showed nothing abnormal. However, that visit to the doc has let the "Djin out of the bottle" 🧞♂️. I have a host of tests over the next two months for my new cardiologist 🙄.
Okay - I'm ill. I'm not sure what the illness is, but I am not so spiff. I have a pain on my right side that won't go away. It's about 4 inches below the armpit, though the pain radiates to the pec and back to behind the shoulder blade. The pain from it comes in surges, and there's little rhyme or reason to when they change intensity. This started on Saturday last week as a sharp pain directly in the side, and it has "migrated" to manifesting itself along the entire right side. When the pain increases, it's really bad - about a 6 or 7 on the pain-o-meter, even with a dose of Tylenol in me. When the pain ebbs, it's about a 2 and I can function pretty well. For the past week, it has been on the lighter side most of the time. Our suspicion is gall bladder, though the doc isn't sure. I had a CT scan yesterday to see if something gastro is causing the pain. I won't know the results until perhaps Tuesday next week. So, I'll be a bit sleep deprived until some plan of action comes forward.
The broadcasters announced yesterday that the president and his wife tested positive for COVID-19. Presently, he is in Walter Reed Hospital. This virus does not care about your station in life. It does not care if you game the reporting statistics. It has developed a method of self preservation that suppresses your immune system while it replicates, only to have the eventual overly-aggressive immune response kill you. Should you survive, then it is likely that the scars of the virus will continue. Returning to "normal" will be an ungranted wish.
Get well, mr. president and first-lady. No one should endure the suffering of COVID-19.
This morning, Florida reported 139 deaths due to COVID-19. One of those was Ken. He took his last breath as his wife listened over the phone yesterday evening. We get caught up in the numbers and the bias, but we so easily forget that behind those numbers are moms, dads, workers, and retirees like Ken.
I still miss saying "Hi" to you!
Update 9/26/2020:
We held the memorial for Ken over Zoom today. His wife was strong, but I think that she has cried her eyes out over the past month. Now, when I hear or see the COVID-19 numbers, I think of Ken. The statistics are very different when they are humanized.
Howdy and greetings from our little tin can by the sea. We are both doing very well and happy labor day weekend to all. I've decided that following the news has made me become bitter, so I'm not posting my usual recap this week. Here's the numbers.
Howdy and greetings from our little tin can by the sea. Wendy and I have been doing well, and my big toe is healing nicely from my near fall last week. We will have a few doctor visits over the next couple of weeks. We put them off for a bit due to the surge in COVID-19 cases in our area. Not that things are that very much better right now, but we don't want to risk our health by missing the monitoring phase and the doc's input. Work isn't going so well for me. I'm not sure how I can fix it, but my co-workers have become rude. There's no asking - just telling. I think that I'll talk with HR and see if I can relocate within the business. I also had to drop Wendy from my medical insurance this past week, which has me on edge. The business put out a directive that if an employee or an employee's spouse had medicare part D, the prescription insurance, then they could not be enrolled in United Health Care coverage. Wen has a medicare advantage plan, and it does cover pharmacy, so she'll have to use that as primary come Tuesday. I think this is a cost saving step, but it makes me worry.
In Japan, Shinzo Abe has resigned. He has been prime minister since 2012, a record stretch. I lived in Japan for three years, and I have witnessed retirements and resignations there. I'm sure that the country will celebrate his departure while welcoming a new prime minister. They have a way of doing this that softens the edges of the transition of power. Sorry, I digress - Shinzo Abe! Kompai! 🥂
The wildfires in California threatened the Lick Observatory, though fire crews held them from causing any harm. The northern California wildfires are rampant this year, which can be seen in the map to the left. The California fires have burned 1,660,332 acres so far this year, making this the second-worst wildfire season ever. During this past week, hurricanes Marco and Laura made landfall in Louisiana. Marco came in as a Category 1, and Laura trumped that as a Category 4. Only fourteen deaths have been attributed to Laura - any single loss of life is one too many, but this could have had hurricane Katrina numbers associated with it had the storm tracked a bit further east. Both Laura and Marco are the earliest 'L' and 'M' named storms on record for the Atlantic hurricane season. We haven't reached "peak" yet, which occurs on September 10th, marking the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season. This season may rival 2005, when there were 26 named storms.
Kenosha, Wisconsin. That's also a location from my past. I went to Electronics Technician 'A' school in Great Lakes, Illinois, which is just south of the Wisconsin border. We would make trips across the border to take the younger squids drinking - Wisconsin's legal age for alcohol was 18 at that time. There was a bar named "Rocket North" that we, and a lot of northern Illinois, frequented.
This time, Kenosha's name is not being remembered - it is being drug through the mud due to two shootings. The first involved a policemen delivering seven rounds into a human being at point blank range while the victim's children watched from the back seat of the car. His name is Jacob Blake, and he has survived the ordeal, though he is paralyzed from the waist down. At the hospital, they had him hand-cuffed to the bed. This brought a week of protests to that city. During a protest on Tuesday night, an underage male shot three of the protesters with an AR-15. Two of his victims died. I can't stomach watching either of the videos so I can't offer an opinion on the incidents. I can offer an opinion that the have-gun-will-travel cavalier attitude in the northern mid-west needs to end. Both police and civilians are leading down the road of us against them, which will entail a lot of death - much of it collateral. There was also a gathering of protesters at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC, commemorating Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech which was delivered on August 28, 1963. It happened to coincide with the Republican National Convention, and the president decided to accept his second term nomination at the white house - unethical and illegal. In his acceptance speech, he termed the protesters "thugs".
Cases
Deaths
Tests
Scope
Cases
% Inc.
Deaths
% Inc.
Worldwide
24,942,210
7.7
842,008
4.8
United States
6,097,360
5.1
185,972
3.8
Florida
615,806
3.8
10,962
7.7
Pinellas County
19,740
2.6
645
9.1
I made an error in the numbers last week - I didn't update the number of deaths in Pinellas county. That has been corrected in last week's blog. This week, I'd like to talk about trust. This past week, I have lost my trust in two very necessary government institutions - the cdc and the fda. First, the cdc. I view their responsibility as being the "truth" in the center of the storm. Before you "quid est vertias" me, be cautious of your mindset. Quoting Pontius Pilot doesn't score well with me. Last Monday, the cdc changed their guidance concerning testing. Now, they say that you should only get tested if you are directed by medical personnel to receive a test. As the story begins to unfold, rumors have it that this came from the department of health and human services, which, being political in nature, could have received a prodding from the white house to reduce testing prior to the election. In addition, the us government has ordered almost all of the planned production of at-home test kits from Abbott Laboratories. Large companies do this in order to prevent a smaller company from hitting the market with a new technology. The net effect: the numbers will decline for political gain. Now, the fda, who gave emergency use authorization to COVID-19 blood plasma. The jury is out on this treatment - no one knows if it is useful at all - but the president gave comments terming a "deep state" of blocking corona virus vaccine and treatment tests shortly before the authorization was granted. Directly after the emergency authorization, the white house press secretary announced it as a "milestone achievement". I can tell theater when I see it, and this is the worst kind - people will die because of this. Unfortunately, the fda also delineates what suppliers of drugs are worthy to produce pharmaceuticals for our consumption. What else have they caved on? This doesn't support the notion that the vaccine tests are unbiased, either. I'm not enamored with any of hhs' agencies at this time. The corona virus cases, deaths, and testing numbers have slipped into Goodhart's Law: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.
A gallon of gas is going for $1.95 at the local 7/11 Google tells me. The DJIA is up over the week, starting Monday morning at 28078 and closing on Friday afternoon at 28687. The DJIA and S&P are at or near their pre-COVID-19 levels. The banter in the economic news is wary - many believe that these values are propped from the initial $3 trillion corona virus relief package, and they are waiting for the other shoe to drop, since labor hasn't recovered and if that fails, it will lead to subsequent defaults and foreclosures. Unemployment claims exceeded one million people last week. The fed predicts a better than 25% annualized improvement in GDP for the third quarter. After a 30+ % drop in the second quarter, that still leaves the GDP down, with labor on a slow path to recovery.
In politics, excepting the president and his vice, it is illegal for any member of the executive branch to use their office to raise funds for a political party. This is called the Hatch Act (USC Title 5, Subchapter III).
Especially people who care about strangers
Who care about evil and social injustice
Do you only care about being proud
How about I need a friend, I need a friend
- Galt MacDermot, James Rado, and Gerome Ragni, Easy to be hard, Hair, 1969
Greetings from our little tin can by the sea, where Wendy and I are trying to ride out the effects of the corona virus pandemic. Our health is doing well, though I think we both wish that we could see people and some more sunshine. I tripped last Sunday from a toe-drop (dern MS), so I've been recovering. It has been a gloomy week, with a lot of rain. The forecast is for more of the same, as we are about to have two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. The last time that there were two named storms in the Gulf was back in 1933 - a cat 3 hurricane and a tropical storm. This time, we're looking at two cat 1 hurricanes, Marco, the western one due to make landfall on Tuesday, and Laura, the more eastern one that will deliver the second blow on Wednesday. The latest forecast shows that Marco may not strengthen to hurricane force - I guess we will wait and see. With multiple intense lows like this, they "dumbell" by influencing the track of the nearby storm. The actual effect is called the Fujiwhara effect, where these proximity of the two storms prevents either of them from intensifying greatly. I ran across this in the pacific during a transit from Pearl Harbor, HI to Yokohama, Japan. We had three storms and their paths became erratic. The USS Mount Vernon tried to flank them, but eventually, we went right through one of them. It was a mess onboard. A hurricane can really rock a ship. I practiced my bulkhead walking and the max value of the inclinometers for every roll was broadcast throughout the ship. The meals that day were boxed lunches, since the cooks couldn't tend a hot pot with those rolls. It made tying up at Yokohama all that much sweeter. Work this week is going better. I've moved to a different group, where I don't know much, which is fine by me. I'll learn and start contributing soon. Meanwhile, the ghosts of the past group keep coming up. These folks don't get it - we all should be able to do each other's job. Oh well - I have a couple of months before looking for greener pastures within the company.
The Western half of the US is burning up, literally. All of the pinks, reds, and oranges on the map to the right are heat advisories and warnings. There are wildfires all through this, with daily announcements of evacuations in northern California. Death Valley recorded a temperature of 130 degrees Fahrenheit. That is the hottest temperature recorded, ever, at any location. This is all without an El Nino. Looks like this news is only going to get worse year-over-year. On Friday, Iowa was the site of a derecho - a straight-line wind and storm event that can reach hurricane force. It leveled crops and homes and caused massive power outages throughout the state.
Cases
Deaths
Tests
Scope
Cases
% Inc.
Deaths
% Inc.
Worldwide
23,149,739
8.2
803,807
5.2
United States
5,798,983
5.9
179,240
4.5
Florida
593,286
5.3
10,177
11.2
Pinellas County
19,247
4.2
591
9.2
Two years. That's the only number that really matters. The World Health Organization's prognosis is, with mutual cooperation between countries, we can beat the corona virus in two years. That just floored me. Though, if I think back on it, my first inkling was a year, and now we're looking at over two and a half. So, this blog may extend to parts higher than 100 - what a mad, mad, mad, mad, world! The concept of mutual cooperation won't happen. There are too many "leaders" asking "WIIFM?! (What's In It For Me?!)" to have some sort of global cooperation. So, Christmas 2022 is our best delivery date for a return to some semblance of "normal". I'm going to need fistfuls of Patience, Persistence, and Perseverance; we are all going to need divine assistance to make it to 2023.
Protesters in Portland, Oregon have decided to target the us immigration and customs enforcement building this past week. Is this an effort to stay in the news? I do need some help understanding what goal is meant to be gained by moving from the federal courthouse to the ice building. Do the protesters want to engage the police? I generally avoid op-eds, but I'll search around to see if I can uncover the motivation for the change.
In the economy, Google tells me that our local 7/11 is selling gas for $1.96/gal. The DJIA has been flat over the week, starting Monday morning at 27970 and closing Friday afternoon at 27948. Unemployment claims increased to 1.1 million over the past week. The IRS estimates that there will be a drop of 38.9 million jobs between 2020 and 2021. Further, the IRS estimates that it will take years for these jobs to recover.
US Constitution excerpts:
The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex. Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.
- The Constitution of the United States of America, Amendment 19, Section 1
The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.
- The Constitution of the United States of America, Amendment 15, Section 1
The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defense and general welfare of the United States; but all duties, imposts and excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
To borrow money on the credit of the United States;
To regulate commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian tribes;
To establish a uniform rule of naturalization, and uniform laws on the subject of bankruptcies throughout the United States;
To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures;
To provide for the punishment of counterfeiting the securities and current coin of the United States;
To establish post offices and post roads;
To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries;
To constitute tribunals inferior to the Supreme Court;
To define and punish piracies and felonies committed on the high seas, and offenses against the law of nations;
To declare war, grant letters of marque and reprisal, and make rules concerning captures on land and water;
To raise and support armies, but no appropriation of money to that use shall be for a longer term than two years;
To provide and maintain a navy;
To make rules for the government and regulation of the land and naval forces;
To provide for calling forth the militia to execute the laws of the union, suppress insurrections and repel invasions;
To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the militia, and for governing such part of them as may be employed in the service of the United States, reserving to the states respectively, the appointment of the officers, and the authority of training the militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;
To exercise exclusive legislation in all cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten miles square) as may, by cession of particular states, and the acceptance of Congress, become the seat of the government of the United States, and to exercise like authority over all places purchased by the consent of the legislature of the state in which the same shall be, for the erection of forts, magazines, arsenals, dockyards, and other needful buildings;--And
To make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the foregoing powers, and all other powers vested by this Constitution in the government of the United States, or in any department or officer thereof.
- The Constitution of the United States of America, Article I, Section 8
Before he enter on the Execution of his Office, he shall take the following Oath or Affirmation:– "I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."
- The Constitution of the United States of America, Article II, Section 1, Clause 8
A Florida man... 🙄
A Florida man was recently arrested for trying to cash in a winning lottery ticket at the same store that he had stolen it and several others from, according to police. In a statement posted to Facebook, the Clearwater Police Department in Florida wrote, "for most people, it's their lucky day when they get a winning scratch-off lottery ticket." The man who attempted to cash in the stolen ticket was identified by police as Herbert McClellan, 27, of Clearwater, Florida. McClellan is accused of stealing 13 scratch-off lottery tickets from a Speedway. Shortly after going back to the same store, Speedway employees, who remembered him from before, called the Clearwater Police Department. He was arrested shortly after officers arrived at the Speedway, according to police. Following the arrest, McClellan was charged with petit theft and dealing in stolen property, authorities said. "It's safe to say it was not his lucky day," the Clearwater Police Department wrote in its statement posted to Facebook.
- Matthew Impelli, "Florida Man Arrested for Cashing In Winning Lottery Ticket at Gas Station He Stole It From, Cops Say", Newsweek, 21 August 2020
Some lyrics to reflect the idiocy of leadership at the usps:
Please Mr. Postman
Please Mr. Postman, look and see. (Oh yeah.)
Is there a letter in your bag for me?
- Georgia Dobbins, William Garrett, Freddie Gorman, Brian Holland, and Robert Bateman, Please Mister Postman, The Marvels, 1961
Greetings from our little tin can by the sea! Wendy and I are doing well and staying relatively healthy during our self-isolation due to the corona virus. I say "relatively" because this past Tuesday, we had a stomach bug that kept us from doing anything. We attributed it to drinking contaminated water at some point. Last Friday, the park had some work done on the water main and put us all on a boil water notice. Tuesday afternoon, that notice was lifted. Evidently, we had ingested some of the bad water over the weekend, despite the prolific use of bottled water. Ah, well, if that's as bad as it gets, then it's still a good day. Work is still happening from home. We are starting to get support tickets now, and they are being treated poorly. We have offshore resources, but they are only available from 1:30 am to 9 am. We are supposed to pick up the other 16.5 hours. I've fallen into this trap before, and I need to distance myself from it. I'll be moving to a different app within the group this coming week. It doesn't appear to have much support with it, but we will see. The chart at the top shows the monthly temperatures of the hottest years on record, and it looks like 2020 is going to join this list. We also had a magnitude 5.1 earthquake at the border of North Carolina and Virginia. That was certainly odd - no damage, but the quake was felt all the way to Charlotte.
Cases
Deaths
Tests
Scope
Cases
% Inc.
Deaths
% Inc.
Worldwide
21,390,317
9.2
764,148
5.4
United States
5,478,009
7.5
171,568
4.5
Florida
563,285
8.7
9,146
15.4
Pinellas County
18,466
6.4
541
15.4
No whammies; no whammies - STOP! Sad trombone. I'm fairly certain that the numbers are bogus, but they're there anyway. Even with the dubious data, projections are for 291,000 deaths in the US by December 1st. Most sports are on hold, though we do have hockey! I guess we'll see what impact that has on the playing athletes. The Florida High School Athletic Association says "game on" for high school football and awarding the state championship. This is foolhardy. This year will come to be known as "When the baby-boomers died." Also, the CDC has proclaimed that people have a tolerance to COVID-19 for three months after recovering from it. That's not a good sign for a vaccine. It'll be more like a very expensive oil change.
My thoughts on Black Lives Matter: the police unions and the bar associations are more parts of the problem than parts of the solution.
In economic news, gas is selling for $2.00/gal at our local 7/11 according to Google. The DJIA has been up this past week, start Monday morning at 27488 and ending Friday afternoon at 27919. Jobless claims were below one million last week, which is historically high, but lower than recent values. Four executive orders went out from the white house, but they expect money from the states to implement them, and that has produced law suites.
The definition of inadequate is someone or something that is lacking in something desired or required. ... The definition of unable is a person or thing that doesn't have the ability, power or authority to do something. - "Thesaurus: ineffective", yourdictionary.com
In lieu of a political section, here is today's quote from the US Constitution:
The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or of the Executive (when the Legislature cannot be convened) against domestic Violence.
- The Constitution of the United States of America, Article IV, Section 4.
A Florida Man - During the past week, a man was apprehended for living in the luxury suites of Al Lang stadium in downtown St. Petersburg, FL. Al Lang stadium is the home of the Rowdies soccer team, which have not been playing due to COVID-19 isolation. The perpetrator lived in the accommodations for two weeks, based on video evidence from cameras within the stadium. He helped himself to food, drink, and a number of items of Rowdies fan clothing.
Down in the shadow of the penitentiary
Out by the gas fires of the refinery
I'm ten years burning down the road
Nowhere to run ain't got nowhere to go
- Bruce Spingsteen, Born in the USA, Born in the USA, 1984
Another week has passed for Wendy and I in our little tin can by the sea. We are doing well, always enjoying one another's company as we isolate to survive the corona virus pandemic. To a layman, it appears that something has happened to testing for the virus. The CDC came out with guidance that instructed younger people that they didn't need to test for the virus - instead, just isolate at home for ten days. And in Florida, our governor has removed the need for testing restaurant workers - the manager is now responsible for determining if someone should be at work or not. Wen and I vowed not to eat at a restaurant for a while, since we can't trust it. Even at a drive through, we can't trust it. Work continues on for me. I'm still working from home and loving every minute of it. I had a bunny visit me on Wednesday to brighten my spirits. We had a mini-reorg at work. Our leader decided to insert a layer of management between him and the developers. So, I now have six layers of management between me and the senior partners. Kinda like the six degrees of Kevin Bacon, but different. The chart above shows the race for a vaccine. Currently, I do not plan on getting vaccinated with any of these. There has been too little science and quite a bit of pomp associated with them. I have oodles of questions, like "how long will it last," "if I need a booster and my first shot was brand A, can I safely use brand B for the booster," "are there any long-term side effects," and a volume of others.
This week marked the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima, Japan by the US. I lived and worked in Japan for three years. I had one Japanese gentleman, a shop manager, thank me for ending the war. I told him that I personally had nothing to do with it; I wasn't even born. Then he told me part of his story - that he was a crewman in a two-man kamikaze submarine in Tokyo harbor when Hiroshima and Nagasaki were bombed. The detonations were only three days apart - August 6th and 9th, 1945. So, my friend concluded, he thanked me because he is alive today to have a conversation with me. I'm getting teary just recalling that moment. I've also been to both Peace Park in Hiroshima and Ground Zero in Nagasaki. If you find yourself in Japan, I strongly recommend going to both of these locations. If nothing else, a ride on the Shinkansen bullet train is well worth it, but I think the visit to these locations will change you. It's ironic that I reinforced my internal pacifist by being in the armed services. To me, one scripture resonates more than most others - Exodus 20:13. Look it up.
Arctic sea ice has shrunk to the lowest level since satellite information tracking it began in 1980. This is a reduction in sea ice area of 26.4 % over those 30 years. The sea ice moderates our winter-summer temperature extremes and without it, we will have huge temperature and humidity swings globally as the seasons change. Since we mitigate the seasonal variations with air conditioning and heating, which are dependent on burning fossil fuels, this will only exacerbate the current situation. But it's all a hoax, right? 🙄
Cases
Deaths
Tests
Scope
Cases
% Inc.
Deaths
% Inc.
Worldwide
19,584,576
10.0
724,860
6.0
United States
5,097,187
8.2
164,139
4.7
Florida
518,075
10.1
7,927
15.8
Pinellas County
17,358
6.1
469
27.8
For what little they are worth, the numbers are presented in the table to the left. These numbers, and nearly all numbers surrounding the corona virus, now follow Goodhart's Law: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. I suspect that the federal government is trying to rein in costs, so now they are reducing the number of tests by applying policy and advisories to remove requirements for COVID-19 tests. As a result, I expect the Florida and Pinellas county week-over-week percentage increases to dwindle. I'm sure that there are associated advisories and policies to reduce the deaths due to COVID-19 as well. It will take a couple weeks to see that appear.
The protests continue for Black Lives Matter, with a recent encounter in Utah. There, a peaceful BLM protest was countered with a protest by "Utah Citizens Alarm", a pro-police group that were armed. Why would you come armed to a peaceful protest? I don't think the intent was peaceful.
The economic numbers - Google tells me that the local 7/11 is selling gas at $2.09/gal. The DJIA is up over the week, starting Monday morning at 26542 and ending Friday afternoon at 27437. Unemployment is still up, at 10.2% during July. The increased unemployment payment, as well as eviction prevention, and the loans for small businesses have now lapsed. The house and the white house have been trying to negotiate a new bill. First question - where are the senators in this? Vacationing? Second question - why has it taken so long for them to negotiate? The senate tried to pass a bill, but it failed within their own chamber. I guess that left the house to wrangle with the treasury to get something done. Neither bartered in good faith, though. Members of the house wanted to expose how the senate waited forever and offered so little, and the treasury knew that the president would use executive orders to get something done. Or can he? Our constitutional moments for today -
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
- Constitution of the United States of America, Article 1, Section 8, Clause 1
No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law; and a regular Statement and Account of the Receipts and Expenditures of all public Money shall be published from time to time.
- Constitution of the United States of America, Article 1, Section 9, Clause 7
One idea floated was to remove all payroll tax. There are numerous issues with doing this, like defunding social security and medicare. Probably the worse situation is that the courts would be defunded. I went though this once in Alabama - 2010 was a shortfall year for taxes in Alabama and as a result, they defunded the court system in 2011, causing courts to take days off, furlough many clerks and officers, and generally downsize. The case backlog was huge and crime increased as a result.
On politics: "This Content Isn't Available Right Now." - Facebook.
A Florida Illinois man...
I had to venture to articles from Illinois for this one. A man driving a powerboat was killed when his own anchor hit him. He was trawling the anchor, he hit the gas, the line went taught, and the rebound pulled the anchor out of the water and straight into the driver of the boat.
It's a turf war on a global scale
I'd rather hear both sides of the tale
See, it's not about races
Just places, faces
Where your blood comes from is where your space is
I've seen the bright get duller
I'm not going to spend my life being a color
- Bill Botrell and Michael Jackson, Black and white, Dangerous, 1991
Howdy and warm greetings from our tin can by the sea, where Wendy and I are surviving self-isolation from the corona virus. Our health is well; the only caveat is that we ache considerably due to inactivity. Our trips to the grocery store are the longest periods that we spend walking, and that's taking a toll. We have Hurricane Isaias visiting Florida this weekend. It is forecast to impact the east coast, with minor impacts over here. The really cool picture to the left is a photo of a star with two gas giant planets. The star, TYC 8998-760-1, is only 300 light-years away, and it is similar to our sun. This is a photograph - the first one depicting exoplanets orbiting a star other than the sun. It was taken by a team led by Alexander Bohn of Leiden University using the Very Large Telescope at the European Southern Observatory in Chile. The astronauts in SpaceX' Dragon capsule are expecting to return soon. The current plan is a splashdown Sunday afternoon, but it depends on Hurricane Isaias. If not tomorrow, then the next opportunity is on Monday. Fair winds, Bob and Doug (click for theme)! On the work front, things are going well. I'm still working from home, thankfully. I entered an Idea contest at work for "what is a skill" and my entry has been advanced to the second, and final, round of judging. So, I have to come up with a six minute pitch of the idea. Divyesh has offered to help me with that, which is very cool.
Cases
Deaths
Tests
Scope
Cases
% Inc.
Deaths
% Inc.
Worldwide
17,801,022
11.4
683,882
6.3
United States
4,707,401
10.8
156,772
5.6
Florida
470,386
16.9
6,843
21.1
Pinellas County
16,356
11.1
367
17.7
What is the annualized interest of a 1% daily compounded interest rate? Answer: 3,678%. A daily growth of 0.01 results in an annual growth of 37.78! I offer this math exercise because our day-to-day growth of deaths in the US are presently at about 1%. I expect the reported number, currently at 156,772, to accelerate through the remainder of the year. I do hope that it doesn't come to pass, but as Vince Lombardi said, "hope is not a strategy." Where to begin with all of this? The US still leads the world in the number of cases and the number of deaths. Our fond State of Florida is #2 among states in the number of cases, only surpassed by California. Florida has also had a record setting week of four consecutive state-record-setting-days for deaths from the virus (186, 216, 252, and 256 for 7/28 through 7/31). But could Florida's numbers be plateauing or even improving? Well, the number of tests being conducted per day is being throttled. Also, there is a minimum five day lag between being tested and test results. So, it is likely that if you are infected, you will be showing symptoms before you get the test results back, essentially negating the usefulness of testing. Dr. Fauci briefed congress on the current state-of-the-union with regard to the corona virus. An idiot congressman tried to goad Dr. Fauci into denouncing the protests. "I don't judge one crowd versus another crowd. When you're in a crowd particularly, if you are not wearing a mask, that increases the spread," replied Dr. Fauci.
Wear a Mask * Wash your Hands * Stay at Home * Save a Life
On the economic front, gas is selling for $2.13/gal at the local 7/11. I suppose some demand is back over the last week, driving up the price. The DJIA dipped all week, only to end about where it started. DJIA opened Monday at 26447 and end Friday afternoon at 26389. Our senators delayed discussing the next Corona Virus relief bill too long. As of midnight August 1st, the old relief bill and it's provisions are gone. No more $600/wk unemployment; no more eviction protection; no more loans to keep people employed. On top of that, the GDP shrank 9.5 % quarter-over-quarter in 2020Q2, which works out to 32.9 % annualized. That is the largest shrink since complete records began in 1889. An additional 1.43 million people filed for unemployment last week. The actual value for the US Unemployment rate in July comes out on August 7th, though the expected value is 10.3%.
DHS Shock Troops have left the cities of Portland and Seattle this past week. "operation legend" currently encompasses Kansas City, Chicago, Albuquerque, Detroit, Cleveland, and Milwaukee. To those that are second amendment minded, these are the troops that the second amendment was meant to address:
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
The word State appears, not the plural. Where are those that espouse liberty now? Fascism has very strange bedfellows.
I worked in Selma, Alabama for fourteen years, and I have seen its history in the shadows that continue to be cast there. Though a funeral, this movie is a story of one man's struggle to cross the Edmund Pettus Bridge which straddles the Alabama River at Selma. God's speed, John Lewis.
A black woman, her son, and a friend were kicked out of a public pool in Fort Lauderdale, FL for talking across swimming lanes. A white woman raised the complaint, and the police were summoned with an outcome resulting in the black woman's family being banned from the pool for 24 hours, and the white woman being banned from the pool for 72 hours. The really odd part is that this used to be a blacks only pool. Details here.
Looking for politics? A quote from the US Constitution - Article II, Section 1.
The Congress may determine the Time of choosing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States.
🙄 A Florida man...
Before May 13, David T. Hines's corporate bank account was in the red by more than $30,000. But after the 29-year-old Florida man nabbed a nearly $4 million loan from the federal Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), his fortunes quickly changed.
In fact, just one week after receiving money from the fund meant to bail out businesses affected by the coronavirus pandemic, Hines was cruising around Miami Beach in a new blue Lamborghini Huracán EVO, which cost more than $318,000.
Now, federal prosecutors say Hines illegally used hundreds of thousands of dollars in PPP loans meant for his moving companies to buy the car as well as a host of personal expenses, including shopping sprees and high-end hotel stays, instead of covering his companies' payroll. The Justice Department announced Monday he was arrested and charged with making false statements to a lending institution, bank fraud and engaging in transactions in unlawful proceeds, officials said.
Today's lyric:
Sing hymns, make love, get high, fall dead
He'll bring his perfume to your bed
He'll charm your life 'til the cold wind blows
Then he'll sell your dreams to a picture show
- John Wetton, Robert Fripp, and Richard Palmer-James, The great deceiver, Starless and Bible Black, King Crimson, 1974
Hello, howdy, and greetings from our little tin can by the sea. Wendy and I survived another week of self-isolation amid the corona virus pandemic. We are both healthy and doing well. The picture to the right was taken in Sawgrass Lake Park last Sunday. That park is near our home, and we got some Einstein bagels and sat in the car at the park for brunch. There was a lot of wildlife, including a red-headed woodpecker. Largely, though, I enjoy watching the butterflies. We still have some butterflies behind our home, and I get to see them from time to time as I work. Normally, I sit out on the west porch in the morning, but I've had to use the lanai on Thursday and Friday. We have an industrious mud dauber that is bent on building a cocoon somewhere on our west porch. Since I have vision issues, I can't readily distinguish between a wasp and a mud dauber, so I just relocate for now. I'll try to restake my claim to the west porch on Monday, after a bit of washing this weekend. I'm still working from home, which has been great. I must admit that I'm thankful for working from home. I disagree with how my group is being run, and it's just "better" for my longevity there that I don't vocalize any of it to management. I do like my employer, but I wish that the message from my immediate supervisors was consistent with the message delivered from the upper ones.
Cases
Deaths
Tests
Scope
Cases
% Inc.
Deaths
% Inc.
Worldwide
15,985,274
12.3
643,581
7.2
United States
4,249,779
12.7
148,521
4.5
Florida
402,312
22.9
5,653
17.6
Pinellas County
14,726
15.8
367
22.3
Though I question the validity of the numbers being reported, I will keep reporting them. I've added another little trend from Reuters - one for the number of tests and the percentage of positives. There are three states that are setting the trend for cases and deaths: California, Florida, and Texas. Arizona is dropping out of the race by reducing the number of tests - fewer tests, fewer positives. I'm sure that the deaths are being swept into some other bin, so they won't show up until the mortality data comes out. Truth is hard to come by. Still, the primary topic is opening the schools. Our secretary of education has decided to blatantly lie by quoting selected quotes from medical papers. First, some at least have not been peer reviewed; second, the quotes are being applied out-of-context. The first is a fallacy of hasty generalization, the second is an intentional fallacy. I put a wary take on this: if the truth appears deceptive, then chances are that it isn't the truth.
Meanwhile, the federal shock troops are moving into additional cities. They are now in Portland, Seattle, Albuquerque, Chicago, and Kansas City. Well, when a fascist is elected, you end up with fascism.
One item of note on the global warming front - the expected global temperature rise is now estimated at 2.9 to 3.6 degrees Centigrade. This improves the previous worst case of 4.5 degrees C, though it worsens the previous best case of 1.5 degrees C. The article in Science Magazine, authored by Paul Voosen, concludes by saying:
Unfortunately, the years of work needed to attain that certainty came with a cost: 4 decades of additional emissions and global warming, unabated.
On to the economy - I haven't been out this past week, but google tells me that the local 7/11 is selling regular for $1.96/gal. Though the DJIA surged during the week, it is down overall. It opened on Monday morning at 26660 and closed on Friday afternoon at 26469. I've been reading a lot of prophets of doom regarding the US economy, while the Fed and treasury have largely been silent. Unemployment has increased, with an estimated 30 million people in the US out-of-work. Many of the provisions of the PPP law will end on July 31. Salary protection and the increased unemployment benefits are two of the most notable. The senate is having difficulty piecing together a package that will meet muster with the white house and the house of representatives. It's of their own design - they hoped to force the legislation, using the drop dead date as leverage. Now, that leverage has turned against them.
On politics - please look elsewhere.
I've got the apolitical blues
And that's the meanest blues of all
Apolitical blues
And that's the meanest blues of all
I don't care if it's John Wayne
I just don't want to talk to him now
- Lowell George, A apolitical blues, Sailin' Shoes, Little Feat, 1972
Howdy and welcome back to our little tin can by the sea, where Wendy and I try to stay healthy amid the corona virus pandemic. As you can see by the above chart, our picturesque state of Florida isn't doing so well with the number of COVID-19 cases. In fact, we are the model for what-not-to-do, perhaps only surpassed by Georgia, but I'll get to that in a bit. The two of us are healthy, and staying at home. We both communicate with the outside world via email, texts, and video meetings. I see many of my family up north circulating with pictures shopping and outdoors with no masks or social distancing. I wish that I could do that. Unfortunately, I have a plethora of ailments that put me in the upper percentiles of bad outcomes from COVID-19 respiratory distress. Luckily, my employer is very onboard with working from home, so I continue to do so. I haven't gone out except to grab a pizza for dinner yesterday. Weather is changing into our typical "summer" pattern - beautiful in the morning, rains begin at 3. This is the setup for the hurricanes in August. My thoughts and prayers go out to the sailors onboard the USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD 6), who have relentlessly fought an intense shipboard fire while docked at San Diego, CA 32nd street. Thanks for saving her, but I'm sure that each of the sailors lost something in that blaze, since their personal effects were still onboard when they evacuated. I spent three years in San Diego while on the USS Mount Vernon (LSD 39), and fire is the biggest nemesis onboard any ship.
Cases
Deaths
Scope
Cases
% Inc.
Deaths
% Inc.
Worldwide
14,230,773
12.3
600,304
6.5
United States
3,771,101
14.5
142,080
3.9
Florida
327,241
34.0
4,805
17.1
Pinellas County
12,714
20.0
300
31.0
Git yer numbas here! Numbers! Fresh, hot numbas! Just take a look to the left. This is bad and it is going to get worse, because our leaders aren't doing any thing about it. Suddenly, the governor of Georgia has elected to take an active Libertarian position on masks, to the point of signing an executive order preventing counties and cities from requiring masks to be worn. That's freakin' nuts! On the other side of the coin, the governor of Maryland is exaggerating the extents that his state went to in order to provide ventilators. Yet another grand-stander (YAG-S). The big topic for the week has been opening schools in the coming weeks. The guidance provided by the CDC has been denounced by the white house as too expensive. The CDC is now being bypassed for reporting, which is going to cook the books - the numbers won't be accurate. I read a report stating that the governor of Georgia cooked his numbers so his state could open early. I felt this was happening back in April. There was also a case of espionage where the Russian government was trying to gain information on corona virus vaccines from Canada, the UK, and the US by hacking.
On the Black Lives Matter front - this just in - secret police from the department of homeland security are arresting peaceful protesters in Portland, Oregon. No poop. Federal officers in fatigues with no insignia or markings arrested peacefully protesting civilians. The federal officers were not there at the request of the governor or mayor; instead, an unidentified spokeswoman for the group said that they were there to protect the statues.
"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people."
- Amendment X, The Constitution of the United States
So, unless the state specifically gives the federal government the right,the federal government does not have the right. This is the concept of state sovereignty. The white house is trying criminal threats to impress their wishes on the states. The problem here is what is done has been done. Now, the fear of retribution by federal forces is planted. Even if the ACLU and the governor of Oregon sue and win, it will not change the fact that at least for one day, the constitution, and state sovereignty, were discarded by uninvited federal forces. I think that we have become the thing that we hate. I do wonder if the police lobbyists had a hand, because earlier in the week Oregon posted the names of officers that were decertified in that state back to 1971. The hope was to make the first move in creating a national database of officers that should not wear the badge. To those humans in the camo fatigues - it is highly unlikely that your leaders will pay for this disdain of the law; however, it is highly likely that you will.
On to the economy - gas is selling for $1.99/gal at the local 7/11 today. Over the week, the DJIA has been up, starting Monday morning at 26225 and ending Friday afternoon at 26686. The treasury secretary has suggested that all of the PPP loans under $50,000 should be forgiven - shoot, I didn't get my request in, dern it. This further demonstrates the need for oversight in everything this administration does. Those are my taxes being peed away, mister secretary.
That brings me to the section on politics. My least favorite of all things to discuss. The following definition should suffice:
Plausible deniability is the ability to deny any involvement in illegal or unethical activities, because there is no clear evidence to prove involvement. The lack of evidence makes the denial credible, or plausible. The use of the tactic implies forethought, such as intentionally setting up the conditions to plausibly avoid responsibility for one’s future actions.
- Political Dictionary
It used to be easy to understand the two primary political parties in the US. The whigs were for Britain, and the democrats were for France. Early republicans were states rights, where early democrats preferred federal authority. What I see now is concerning. Many approaches are from the far corners of leftism (socialism) and rightism (fascism). They are missing the middle, which is where I am. I don't want cops shooting citizens everyday. I also want my heart to swell with pride when I read the plaque at the Statue of Liberty. There needs to be mediation to the centralized vs. federated debate. Guidance should always be centralized. Enforcement should always be federated. That's exactly how our judicial system is set up. Here's a question: why do the police, teachers, and other public workers have unions? Is it because of fear that power will be abused, or is it to aim the abuse of that power?
'Til next week - Ex20:13, and thanks to Patrick Semansky/AP for the pic.
And in the naked light I saw
Ten thousand people, maybe more
People talking without speaking
People hearing without listening
People writing songs that voices never share
And no one dared
Disturb the sound of silence
- Paul Simon, Sounds of silence, Sounds of Silence, 1966
