Saturday, May 16, 2020

20200516 - Corona Virus Part 9

Howdy from our little tin can by the sea where Wendy and I are in self-isolation due to the corona virus. We are in good health and we have been limiting our travels outside of our home. We typically go out and pickup a few to-go meals and then eat them at home. Florida opened up a little over the past week, allowing restaurants to have people inside at 25% capacity. Beaches allowed people to enjoy them, but social distancing guidelines are in place. I posted the latest "Full Phase 1 Reopening" guidelines to the right, which go into effect on Monday. I have no idea how many phases our illustrious governor has in mind, nor if there are any partial phases or fallback contingency phases. Government plans are rarely transparent, and this is no exception. The additional oddity is the addition of the county order to the state-wide governor's order. Does that mean a municipality could have their own additions/retractions/exceptions? I'm not sure how far that goes, because eventually, you have the landowner and the family. Wendy and I plan to keep isolating at least through July. My work plans to keep offices closed at least through the end of May. I had the opportunity to take Thursday and Friday off this past week, and I have enjoyed relaxing at home. Next week, I get Friday off followed by Memorial Day the ensuing Monday. Yay!

Tomorrow, we begin a week of events for us. My birthday is tomorrow. My brother and his wife are celebrating their 50th wedding anniversary tomorrow, as well, even though the actual date isn't until the following weekend. We're planning a "Zoom-reunion" of sorts tomorrow for a couple of hours, involving a lot of the current Scheider clan. I invited our daughter and her family to tune in as well as our granddaughter. It may be the only opportunity that they have to meet the Scheiders. Monday is Tweeny Day, followed by Wendy's birthday on Tuesday. Then we have a relatively new Tweeny Day Two on Wednesday with our great-grandson's birthday on Thursday. Whew! I'll need a long weekend over Memorial day to recover. Not really, though - we don't celebrate all of that like we once did. To quote Bob Dylan: "The times, they are a-changin'."

Cases per weekDeaths per week

Let me shuffle through some numbers - Worldwide: 4,649,079 cases with 309,047 deaths; USA: 1,484,579 cases with 88,523 deaths; Florida: 44,811 cases with 1,964 deaths; Pinellas county: 997 cases with 66 deaths. I found these microcharts on Reuters and I'll include them in the weekly posts. Some of the bizarre happening this week include the State Supreme Court of Wisconsin rescinding the stay-at-home order invoked by the governor, Tony Evers. After the ruling, Evers told reporter Ali Velshi, "We're in the wild west Ali. There are no restrictions at all across the state of Wisconsin." Also, this week the test for corona virus has come under question. Research has shown that it has incorrectly reported negatives for samples that should have been positive in over 15% of the samples placed in the machine. So, in addition to the numbers being gamed for political stature, the actual test understates the number of positives. No word on a replacement test. I had mentioned last week that there are issues with the meat supply chains, and Nebraska's governor, Pete Ricketts, is doing something about it - he's no longer reporting numbers associated with meatpacking plants. New York state is also trying to open some of the more rural counties. The good states - Michigan and New Jersey with large declines in both the number of cases and the number of deaths. The bad state - Florida with a flat number of cases and a large increase in deaths. The ugly states - Arizona and Minnesota, with large increases in both the number of cases and number of deaths. We still don't understand all of the effects of COVID-19. Now, there are over 200 children experiencing a form of Kawasaki syndrome as a result of COVID-19. Even as we uncover the clotting and stokes and heart disease in addition to the known lung and autoimmune disease from COVID-19, our national government is touting a "Chutes and Ladders" style free ride through the FDA to a vaccine. The title is "Operation Warp Speed." I hope Gene Roddenberry's heirs are getting a ton of royalties every time that is invoked. The intent of the program is to have a vaccine by the end of the year. I thought about that. Vaccine by the end of the year - that would mean no control group, no blind study, no peer review - the only thing that would meet that criteria is a placebo. To have a clearer picture of what the FDA is supposed to do, look up thalidomide in the FDA history. In addition, this effort is going to be overseen by the Army and an ex-big-pharma executive that was chosen. No bids - chosen. Wen and I told one another that we don't want this vaccine. We can and will wait. Meanwhile, on the USS Roosevelt, sailors are coming down with COVID-19 after already having a bout of it. So, antibodies might not be the "thing" with this virus as compared to say, polio. 

Into the world of business. Gas went up slightly to $1.69/gal at the local 7/11. That's because more people are getting out, so demand is creeping back up. The DJIA was down over the week from 24257 on Monday morning to 23679 on Friday afternoon. The fed is concerned that there are deep issues with the economy. Unemployment is estimated at 33 million citizens. That's about 10% of the population. This past week was the one with the 12th in it, so that will be reflected in the May unemployment figures. COVID-19 is driving businesses like J.C. Penny and Neiman Marcus, who already had substantial issues, into bankruptcy. Some businesses are looking to scale back and reduce headcount, converting temporary layoffs into permanent ones. In California, Telsa is taking a different tact - they have opened despite stay-at-home orders in the state. Further, they are telling people that if they don't come to work, their unemployment will be reduced. I'm seeing this often from government figures, and now industry heads. The term is extortion. You cannot threaten; it is a felony in all states. I wish that it was enforced, but it's not, and that's cowardice. The House passed a $3 trillion dollar package for COVID-19 relief, but the senate (the ones that want the states to declare bankruptcy) said that bill is DOA. Hopefully, it becomes a strawman for the senate, rather than something brushed aside. In related news, the DOJ is looking into firms that took out small business relief as part of the CARES act. Maybe the next congressional act will include oversight.
The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin'
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin'
- Bob Dylan, "The times are a-changin'", The Times are a-Changin', 1964