Greetings from our little tin can by the sea where Wendy and I are trying to survive through self-isolation due to the corona virus. We are healthy and doing well. Our weather this past week has been hot - in excess of 100 degrees Fahrenheit kind of hot. The chart above shows the cycling of our air conditioner yesterday - it was on a lot! Today's forecast is a little cooler - 93. A small town in Russia had a similar high temperature last Saturday, and it is in the Arctic Circle! I have been using our new deck every morning. For about 15 minutes, I go out on it and sit. I listen to the bird calls and watch neighbors and butterflies. It turns out that there are a lot of butterflies that frequent the vegetation behind our house. They have been very comforting to watch. Even after a week, their numbers are dwindling, so I'm glad that I caught it, but I'll have to wait until next year to see them all again. At work, they announced that we won't be coming back to the office until Labor Day, at the earliest. I'm all for that - don't mess with success. Our group has been doing great, though that is largely because we are not centrally located, so we have been doing remote work from the start. I do miss the views from the office, but I'm not going to risk my health for a pretty vista. Last weekend, there was an eclipse, but it was not visible in North America. It was a ring of fire eclipse, caused by the moon being far from the earth (near apogee) so the lunar disk did not fully eclipse the sun at totality. I'm taking the next week off before Fourth-of-July. Hopefully, I can get some rest. My daughter celebrated her birthday this week and I'm sorry that I couldn't give her a hug.
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| Scope | Cases | % Inc. | Deaths | % Inc. |
| Worldwide | 9,935,361 | 13.0 | 497,555 | 7.4 |
| United States | 2,553,686 | 11.1 | 127,649 | 5.1 |
| Florida | 122,960 | 37.0 | 3,366 | 8.3 |
| Pinellas County | 5,099 | 61.7 | 141 | 24.8 |
Numbers! COVID-19 is winning. We appear to be at it's mercy. It's frustrating that something with a countable number of atoms is so devastating. In the US, the reported number of cases represents 0.78% of the population. Two points on that: first, the CDC estimates that the actual number of cases is ten times the reported value. That would imply that 7.8% of the population has been infected at least once. The second point is that leaves 92.1% of the population to contract this illness. Recalling back to the days in early March, the intent of isolating was to "flatten the curve". In doing so, we have reduced the load on our hospitals, but we have lengthened the duration of the pandemic. Now, other states are overloaded - Alabama reported that it has no more ICU beds. They are moving coronary patients to secondary locations (I'm not sure what that means, though). Though Florida is leading the pack in the resurgence of cases, they are by no means alone in this race. California, Texas, and almost all of the southern states are having a "spike", as the politicians are terming it. This surge is of our own doing. We have opened too quickly and have not minded the evidence of exponential growth since Memorial Day. Even if we put on the brakes now, the response will continue through mid-August. Instead of heeding any of the warnings, governors are just closing bars. Bars were only opened last week - this is not being caused by last week's policy decisions! I have an engineering background, and I deal in rough numbers - so, once you catch COVID-19, there is a three to four week "incubation" period when the virus suppresses your immune system response while it replicates. The positives we are seeing today are from decisions made four weeks ago - Memorial Day weekend. From my view, it appears that there was no discussion of contingency - what to do when numbers started to rise. It also appears that there was no estimate of the response from a given policy. The decision appears to have been: we'll wing it. There also seems to be some question about the effectiveness of wearing masks. Time, distance, and shielding are the three vectors that you have available to minimize exposure. Minimize the time that you are exposed - that is, stay at home. Only go out for essential items. Maximize the distance between you and the source of the exposure. Use social distancing, and, again, stay at home. Maximize the shielding between you and the source of the exposure. Again, stay at home, and wear a mask. The mask is to protect everyone else - not necessarily you. Don't wear a mask with a vent; it isn't effective. From an engineering perspective, the two processes of sneezes, coughs, and even talking, are dispersion and diffusion. If you want to minimize a dispersion, you need to cut the velocity of the fluid. The further from the source, the larger the apparatus needed to cut the velocity. Once a dispersion is emitted, the vapor and droplet cloud that remains will diffuse into non contaminated air. This process is minimized if there is less moisture in the ejected material. That, too, is reduced best very near to the source. The source is your mouth and your nose. Cover them with a mask, and keep them covered. A call out our special snowflake lawmakers - learn what it means to lead and wear the mask. I have COPD and I initially had trouble wearing a mask, but I stuck with it and I now can wear one for hours, if necessary. Because of the increase in our infections, New York and New Jersey have implemented requirements that Floridians (and Californians, Texans, Alabamians, etc.) must self-isolate for twelve days when coming to their state. Europe won't allow folks from the US to enter.
The Black Lives Matter movement continues, and it is moving into small towns now. That's good, because this isn't a big city thing - it's personal accountability. There have also been quite a few protesters knocking down statues in the name of Black Lives Matter, though I think it's in the name of general destruction. For example, they toppled Ulysses S. Grant's statue. He freed his slave a year before the Civil War, and led the Union Army to victory, which ended slavery. However, there are those that point to his wife, who was a slave owner. It will be difficult to name a person that lived before 1863 that didn't have a slave and is famous enough to have a statue. Even Thomas Jefferson had slaves, as did George Washington. There is talk now to remove the stars and bars from the Mississippi state flag. That would be a big move. Minneapolis, where the latest wave of Black Lives Matter support came from, has voted to remove the police force and replace it with the Department of Community Safety and Violence Protection. This is part of the city's charter, and a change to that requires the consent of the populace, so it will be on the November ballot. If the change makes muster, it will be instituted in May 2021. A number of other peoples will benefit from the changes brought about by Black Lives Matters. Among them are the tribal indians, or Native Americans. Many are pushing the sovereignty in order to protect the people from the spread of COVID-19. As a result, there will be some dilution in the message from Black Lives Matter, but we are stronger together than we are apart, which is the nature of embracing diversity. The senate bill for police reform won't meet a floor vote and the bill coming from the house doesn't look like ti will make it, either. Perhaps this standoff can be averted if we start from a basis of agreement - the police need to change. We have two strawman proposals of what that change could look like, so sit down and find words that are agreeable. No one will like the result, but it will be a start, and we have to learn how to start again.
A gallon of gas is still $1.95/gal at the local 7/11. The DJIA dropped over the past week, starting the week at 25865 Monday morning and ending at 25020 on Friday afternoon. The drop is related to the increase in COVID-19 cases. To support re-election, the white house wants another round of stimulus money injected into the economy. This move will be inflationary, and that doesn't sit well with conservatives, especially after already injecting $3 trillion into the economy. Eventually, that will come back as lower value to the dollar, making us look more expensive globally, which harms our businesses. Maybe we can get the $1.4 billion that was sent to dead people. Yes, that's how much one million stimulus checks add up to and they were dead people. If any were sent to congress-persons or their families, then I think we should collect those, too.
The president held his soiree in Tulsa. Six members of his campaign staff had COVID and had to self isolate. After the event, two others tested positive and two secret service members had to self-isolate as well. Attendance was lower than expected, largely from teens requesting tickets to skew the numbers. In the end, it was a first-come-first-serve event, but COVID and Black Lives Matter kept many from showing up. If it were me, just taking a flight would be enough for me to stay away. Tom Petty's family also issued a Cease & Desist Order for the campaign's use of a Tom Petty song, and the Rolling Stones have threatened suit for violation of past CDOs. It has also come out that Tulsa had provided seat stickers to maintain social distancing which were removed prior to the event. Our secretary of ed is diverting states funds to private institutions. I think that needs to end... the parents that are sending their kids to private school can foot that bill. I think that our attorney general needs to mind his p's and q's lest he be tried for treason. Subverting the separation of powers is treason. It appears that the current goal is to politicize the courts, replacing as many judges and attorneys as possible. This has the smell of a son-in-law to it. Then there is Bolton's book - I'll never read it, so I really don't care what light it paints anyone in. Instead, the question that I have is: given the premise that the president's actions to date have largely been directed by his desire to be re-elected, what will he do if he gets a second term? I have a real fear about the consequences of another four years of him. Two things that I have learned from our current president: you don't have to be smart to be rich, and anyone can be president.
Powers keep on lyin'While your people keep on dyin'World keep on turnin'Cause it won't be too long- Stevie Wonder, Higher ground, Innervisions, 1973
